Climate Change
About this page
The coast along the Great Ocean Road will be impacted by Climate Change
In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their fourth assessment report, concluding that:
- Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
- Humans are very likely to be causing most of the warming that has been experienced since 1950
- It is very likely that changes in the global climate system will continue well into the future, and that they will be larger than those seen in the recent past.
These changes have the potential to have a major impact on human and natural systems throughout the world including Australia.
The new Victorian Coastal Strategy highlights climate change as a significant issue affecting the future of the Victorian coast. The new Strategy outlines policies and actions to address the issue of climate change, including planning for sea level rise of not less than 0.8 metres by 2100.
As such, climate change represents a risk to community, tourism and environmental values and assets in coastal areas along the Great Ocean Road.
Whilst other, larger studies are underway at State and National scales, GORCC is hoping to undertake an initial assessment in 2009 of the vulnerability of coastal areas along the Great Ocean Road. Federal Government funding is proposed for the project.
By doing so at a regional scale, it will provide a better understanding of the likely climate change risk profile for this nationally important community, tourism and environmental region and provide a good basis to commence and support work on adaptation strategies at regional and state levels.
This (proposed) project will undertake an assessment of the risks of climate change values and assets along coastal reserves between Torquay and Lorne, and identify adaptation strategies. It will provide an assessment of the risk profile associated with climate change, particularly as it relates to infrastructure, beach areas and cliff systems. It will generate interpretive and education materials to communicate the findings to the broader community.
An assessment of this type will provide a better understanding of the likely climate change risk profile and appropriate risk mitigation and adaptive activities for the region. It will also identify stakeholders, responsibilities, and the associated costs to coordinate efforts and build the capacity for the community and region as a whole to become resilient to the impacts of a dynamic climate.
There are three adaptation options:
1. protect (protection of beaches, dunes and infrastructure; land use and development)
2. accommodate (planning and building policies and provisions, redesign and rebuild)
3. retreat (relocation of infrastructure, land use and development).
2. accommodate (planning and building policies and provisions, redesign and rebuild)
3. retreat (relocation of infrastructure, land use and development).
The potential climate change impacts for coastal areas are summarised in Table 1.
|
|
| Table 1: Potential climate change impacts and implications for coastal areas | ||
| Potential climate change effects | Impacts for coastal communities | |
| Sea-level rise | Loss of beaches | |
| Coastal erosion | Loss of Crown land | |
| · | Migration of sand dunes | |
| · | Infrastructure threat or damage | |
| · | Adverse impact on lifestyle or amenity values | |
| · | Loss of habitat and biodiversity loss | |
| · | Declining tourism values (especially iconic beaches) | |
| · | Rising water tables close to the coast | |
| · | Loss of, or threat to private property | |
| · | Insurance issues | |
| Frequent storm events | Damage to infrastructure (energy, water, roads, buildings, telecommunications, coastal ports, jetties, seawalls and access) | |
| More intense storm events | Damage to marine and shoreline ecosystems from storm water and agricultural runoff | |
| Decreased rainfall | Water shortages (during drought) and contamination (storm events, inundation, flooding, ground water salination or contamination) | |
| Flooding and inundation | Agricultural industry impacts - sudden weather events and long-term events (e.g. drought) | |
| · | Tourism impacts (damage to tourism infrastructure, visitor perception of risk) | |
| · | Recreation impacts | |
| · | Public safety and evacuation capacity | |
| · | Capacity of emergency services - volunteers, infrastructure (hospitals, shelters, supplies) | |
| Warming sea temperatures | Threats to marine biodiversity (mangroves, saltmarshes, sea grass) | |
| Ocean acidification | Damage to estuaries - biodiversity, tourism and economic values | |
| · | Threat to fisheries and recreational fishing | |
| · | Threats to port functions | |
| · | Damage to reefs | |
| Increased temperatures | Increased bushfire frequency and intensity | |
| Increased humidity | Public health, especially aged community | |
| · | Disease vectors (insects) | |
| · | Food spoilage | |
| · | Capacity of health services | |
| · | Economic impacts of disease | |
| · | Rural industry readjustments | |
| · | Peak energy demand increases | |
Source: Planning for climate change, National Sea Change Taskforce, 2008 (IPCC 2007a, Henessy et al. 2007, Voice et al. 2007)
What Else is Happening
Victoria
In Victoria, DSE’s Future Coasts Project will deliver a vulnerability assessment for the entire Victorian coast. Future Coasts involves two stages.
The first stage involves collecting the quantitative information needed to assess coastal risks from climate change. To do this, an airborne laser system (LiDAR) will be used to capture a high resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Victoria’s entire coastline. The DEM will show the lie of the land 10 metres above and 10m below sea level, at a scale and level of detail never previously achieved in Australia. DEM outputs are expected in the second half of 2008.
The vulnerability assessment will be enhanced by work on policy and adaptation responses, including tools for land managers, which is expected at the end of 2009.
Concurrently, CSIRO will develop sea level rise and storm surge projections for Victoria’s coastline. Outputs are expected in 2009.
NB: CSIRO has already published studies containing projections of sea level rise and storm surges for the Gippsland coast (www.gcb.vic.gov.au/climatechange.htm) and has been commissioned to produce similar reports for the rest of Victoria’s coastline.
Nationally
The Australian Government Department of Climate Change is leading a ‘first pass’ national assessment of the vulnerability of Australia’s coast to climate change. The assessment is intended to support decision makers by:
- Identifying areas in Australia’s coastal zone with high, medium or low potential for impact from climate change;
- Integrating biophysical and socio-economic analyses to better understand the vulnerability and potential costs of climate change in the coastal zone; and
- Providing relevant analyses to national, state and local governments, and strategic directions on priority research and data gaps.
Two key projects are national shoreline geomorphic stability and mapping which will be complemented by studies at finer scales in a series of six case studies investigating key policy issues in the coastal zone. The six regions identified for the case studies include Kakadu, the Gold Coast, the Hunter Region, Tasmanian coasts, the South Australian Yorke Peninsula, and the West Australian Pilbara coast.
Other
Various other initiatives are underway across Victoria and nationally. For example, City of Port Phillip has conducted a climate change risk assessment. Geelong Otway Tourism is supporting a proposed tourism – risk assessment study. The G21 grouping of local councils has initiated a climate change alliance. Corangamite Catchment Management Authority has appointed a climate change coordinator.