Climate change
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The coast along the Great Ocean Road will be impacted by Climate Change
In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their fourth assessment report, concluding that:
- Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
- Humans are very likely to be causing most of the warming that has been experienced since 1950
- It is very likely that changes in the global climate system will continue well into the future, and that they will be larger than those seen in the recent past.
These changes have the potential to have a major impact on human and natural systems throughout the world including Australia.
The new Victorian Coastal Strategy highlights climate change as a significant issue affecting the future of the Victorian coast. The new Strategy outlines policies and actions to address the issue of climate change, including planning for sea level rise of not less than 0.8 metres by 2100.
As such, climate change represents a risk to community, tourism and environmental values and assets in coastal areas along the Great Ocean Road as shown in the table below.
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| Potential climate change impacts and implications for coastal areas | ||
| Potential climate change effects | Impacts for coastal communities | |
| Sea-level rise | Loss of beaches | |
| Coastal erosion | Loss of Crown land | |
| · | Migration of sand dunes | |
| · | Infrastructure threat or damage | |
| · | Adverse impact on lifestyle or amenity values | |
| · | Loss of habitat and biodiversity loss | |
| · | Declining tourism values (especially iconic beaches) | |
| · | Rising water tables close to the coast | |
| · | Loss of, or threat to private property | |
| · | Insurance issues | |
| Frequent storm events | Damage to infrastructure (energy, water, roads, buildings, telecommunications, coastal ports, jetties, seawalls and access) | |
| More intense storm events | Damage to marine and shoreline ecosystems from storm water and agricultural runoff | |
| Decreased rainfall | Water shortages (during drought) and contamination (storm events, inundation, flooding, ground water salination or contamination) | |
| Flooding and inundation | Agricultural industry impacts - sudden weather events and long-term events (e.g. drought) | |
| · | Tourism impacts (damage to tourism infrastructure, visitor perception of risk) | |
| · | Recreation impacts | |
| · | Public safety and evacuation capacity | |
| · | Capacity of emergency services - volunteers, infrastructure (hospitals, shelters, supplies) | |
| Warming sea temperatures | Threats to marine biodiversity (mangroves, saltmarshes, sea grass) | |
| Ocean acidification | Damage to estuaries - biodiversity, tourism and economic values | |
| · | Threat to fisheries and recreational fishing | |
| · | Threats to port functions | |
| · | Damage to reefs | |
| Increased temperatures | Increased bushfire frequency and intensity | |
| Increased humidity | Public health, especially aged community | |
| · | Disease vectors (insects) | |
| · | Food spoilage | |
| · | Capacity of health services | |
| · | Economic impacts of disease | |
| · | Rural industry readjustments | |
| · | Peak energy demand increases | |
What are we doing to help address the impacts of climate change on our coast?
Since early 2009 GORCC has been working in partnership with the Department of Sustainability (DSE), Surf Coast Shire and other organisations and stakeholders in an effort to identify a way forward to tackling climate change impacts on the coast at a local level.
In August 2009, a workshop jointly organised with the shire brought together representatives from government, business, tourism, environmental and community sectors to discuss this issue.
GORCC will soon commence work on a project, supported by funding provided by the Australian Government, to assess the vulnerability to climate change of coastal areas along the Great Ocean Road between Torquay and Lorne. This will provide a better understanding of the likely climate change risk profile for our iconic coastline and provide a basis for considering adaptation strategies.
The project will build on larger coastal climate change vulnerability assessments currently underway or already completed at the state and national level. It will assess the vulnerability that climate change poses to our local coast, including its natural, cultural, economic and social values, and the potential impacts on coastal assets and infrastructure, beach areas and cliff systems.
In addition, the project will explore appropriate adaptation requirements and opportunities. The latter is likely to focus on three options:
- Protect (e.g. protection of beaches, dunes and infrastructure, land use and development).
- Accommodate (e.g. planning and building policies and provisions, redesign and rebuild).
- Retreat (e.g. relocation of infrastructure, land use and development).
The project will commence in April 2010 and will serve as a foundation piece of work that will underpin and support future initiatives. Its findings will be used to generate education materials to communicate the wider findings to the broader community. Stay tuned!
What's happening at the local, state, national and international level?
Local initiatives
Geelong Otway Tourism is supporting a climate change risk assessment for the tourism industry along the Great Ocean Road, which is being undertaken by Victoria University. Other local initiatives are also underway across Victoria and in other states, including a climate change risk assessment being undertaken by the City of Port Phillip and a climate change risk and adaptation assessment of the Westernport area being conducted by the Westernport Greenhouse Alliance. In Tasmania, the Clarence Council has completed an assessment of climate change impacts on coastal areas in the Clarence area.
Victorian initiatives
In Victoria, the Department of Sustainability and Environment’s Future Coasts Project will deliver a vulnerability assessment for the entire Victorian coast. The Victorian assessment will build on the methodology used in the Australian Government’s National Coastal Risk Assessment but have a higher level of detail to better assist planning at the local level. It is expected to be delivered in mid-2010.
A high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) has been developed for Victoria’s entire coastline. Topographic data has been released to show the lie of the land to 10 metres above sea level, whilst bathymetric data showing 10m below sea level is expected to be released soon.
The Future Coasts team will shortly commence work on developing the Victorian Coastal Climate Change Hazard Guidelines to support decision-makers, including local planners and land managers, in undertaking a consistent approach to planning for and managing the impacts of climate change on the Victorian coast.
The CSIRO is working concurrently to develop sea level rise and storm surge projections for Victoria’s coastline. This work will build on a previously published study relating to sea level rise and storm surges for the Gippsland coast.
National
The Australian Government’s Department of Climate Change recently completed a ‘first pass’ national assessment of the vulnerability of Australia’s coast to climate change. The ensuing report, Climate Change Risks to Australia's Coasts, was released in November 2009.
The objectives of the 'first pass' assessment include:
- to provide an assessment of the implications of climate change for nationally significant aspects of Australia’s coast, with a particular focus on coastal settlements and ecosystems
- to identify areas at high risk to climate change impacts
- to identify barriers or impediments that hinder effective responses to minimise the impacts of climate change in the coastal zone, and
- to help identify national priorities for adaptation to reduce climate change risk in the coastal zone.
The national assessment used the Smartline Coastal Geomorphic Map of Australia. This is a detailed map of the coastal landform types – or 'geomorphology – of continental Australia and most adjacent islands (excluding the Great Barrier Reef).
As a 'geomorphic' map, it represents not just the topography of the coast – the planform, elevation and shape of the coastal landforms that a contour map or digital elevation model may represent – but it also indicates what the differing coastal landforms are made of: varying rock types, laterite, coral, sand, mud, boulders, beachrock, and so on.
In 2009, the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Climate Change, Water, Environment and the Arts released the report of its inquiry into climate change and environmental impacts on coastal communities.
International
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has started work on preparing its fifth assessment report, which will build on the findings of its fourth report, released in 2007, and previous reports. The IPCC is a scientific body involved in reviewing and assessing the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change.
The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 put the climate change debate firmly in the global spotlight as participants grappled with the challenges involved in achieving international consensus on climate change targets.